TOTAL SALES ACTIVITY: Listings, Sales, Change to Inventory, plus a look at pending
sales as a forward looking statistic of our market's health
Barrier Island Properties: houses and condos combined
2007 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan08 Feb April May June July Aug Sep
Listings 182 114 77 108 55 52 98 85 79 105 97 90 171 117 116 96 81 118 75 85
Sales 15 40 34 34 24 42 43 27 16 23 23 16 19 24 57 42 23 23 18 31
Inv. Change +107 + 74 +66 +74 +10 +55 +58 +63 + 82 +76 +74 +152 + 93 +59 +58 +58 +95 +57 +54
Avg DOM 120+ 120+ 120+ 120+ 120+ 120+ 120+ 120+ 120+ 207 213 186
Avg List/Sell 89.77% 90.45 87.19
Pending Sales 16 14 13 8 21 26 31 25 11 8
Sales: Low High Avg Low High Avg
2007 Condo Single Family
Dec $195,000 $2.2M $623,444 $465,000 $4.150M $1,102,177
2008
Jan Houses: 24% were $1M+ 29% were in the $900s 6% were in the $800s 12% in the $500s 18% in the $400s
Again, the middle market listings in the $600-$800 range remain softest; not one single family home over $1.8M sold
Condos: Not one condo on the southern island sold, yet there are 68 for sale; All sales were under $800K or over $2M
2006 Nov-Jan Feb Mar Ap May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Listings 387 138 171 113 88 99 63 81 107 115 80 50
Sales 78 21 35 36 43 45 19 14 13 17 12 14
Inv Change + 309 + 117 + 136 + 77 + 45 + 54 + 44 +67 +94 +98 +68 +36
Avg Days on Mkt 120+ 91-120 91-120 120+ 120+ 120+ 120+ 120+ 120+
TRENDS/ANALYSIS: Where did our rebound go? Robust sales activity of the past several months that reduced inventory to its lowest point in 18 mos came to a grinding halt in September and October, typically a slow period for our market. Here's the real question: is the slowdown seasonal or symptomatic of erosion in our recovery as buyers continue to wait on the sidelines? For the first time in 18 mos, condo sales outpaced single family home sales on the island and our two tiered market becoming more prevalent, as 41% of inventory is priced below $700,000 while nearly 20% is priced over $2,000,000. The middle section of the market in the $800-$1.8M range continues to struggle, leaving this key 'move -up' section of our market stalled. Inventory is fairly evenly spread across the island, with the Indian River Shores area having the largest number of both condos and single family homes for sale -- a function, likely, of being the small area on the island where our tough density laws have placed the majority of our condos. A glance at our scant sales -- only 10 houses on the island -- also show our two tiered market, with sales only under $625 and OVER $2M. Good news: pent up demand appears to be strong, as our web traffic since Oct 1 is up a whopping 56% from browsers across the globe, many of whom have currency stronger than our dollar. The $64,000 question is however, when and how much of it will convert to buyers, as pending sales reveal scant activity continuing across the island....
With its finite product supply and predominance of cash buyers, the island remains the stronger segment of the Vero market, yet condos throughout the entire area remain by far the softest type of housing product, a result of diminished buyer demand from overbuidling on the mainland and escalated fees on the island after the '04 storms. Tax reform appears likely to be passed, perhaps accelerating our return to more balanced market conditions.
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